Facing declining exports and sluggish domestic
demand，… major financial institutions expect the Korean economy to grow in the low
two－percent range this year. Kwon Soa reports.
An almost 1－percentage－point drop in the country′s economic growth compared to last
year，… is what many financial institutions are forecasting for Korea′s 2015 GDP.
If that holds true，… it could be the worst result since 2012， when it posted two－three－percent
growth. Although the average outlook from 36 global
institutions stands at 2－point－5 percent…. … major financial services companies such
as Morgan Stanley and Moody′s estimate that Korea′s GDP growth will only reach 2－point－3
percent. Nomura Securities and IHS Economics forecast
2－point－2 percent growth，… and DKB 2－point－1.
One of the biggest culprits behind Korea′s slowing growth is sluggish exports，…which
have posted negative results for eight straight months this year. ″We already saw a less than 2－point－5
percent growth in the first half of the year，… but in the second half there are even more
factors of concern，… especially expectations of a U.S. interest rate hike plus risks stemming
from the slowing Chinese economy.″ In the longer run，… domestic institutions
have also downgraded a longer term potential growth rate.
LG Research Institute estimates Korea′s GDP will grow by an average 1－point－7
percent between 2020 and 2030. ″As the world economy shifts from a manufacturing－based
to a more service－oriented one，… and with developing countries such as China advancing
in terms of technology，… it has become much more difficult to improve productivity.″ ″When factoring in Korea′s aging population，
a downward trend in the workforce population is expected to begin within the next two years…which
is why experts stress the need for next－generation growth engines to be discovered as soon as
possible. Kwon Soa， Arirang News.″