How to prepare for the next global recession | The Economist

How to prepare for the next global recession | The Economist

We focused on this now because it’s been a decade since the global recession of 2008-2009 and some interesting and and worrying vulnerabilities are also popping up at the moment In 2008 and 2009 The dominoes were really set up for quite a nasty financial and economic crisis this time The economic vulnerabilities aren’t quite as large They’re large enough that we could see a slowdown in GDP growth and a slowdown in trade and things of that nature the real risk, is that our lack of preparedness and the the lack of room for global cooperation Will turn what starts as kind of a minor downturn into something much larger and much more difficult to deal with sometime the next year or two The last big global downturn began in the United States with the collapse of the housing bubble in the financial sector there next time the trouble is much more likely to start elsewhere and perhaps In the emerging world. Emerging economies are a much larger share of global output than they used to be They’ve also gone on something of a borrowing binge over the last ten years, which means that they could be due for a reckoning There are also reasons to be concerned about the euro area and in particular Italy which has an enormous public debt problem and where markets have been feeling a bit jittery about their ability to pay that back and that could relaunch the euro area debt crisis that We saw about a half decade ago The tools government’s normally used to fight a recession won’t be available in the same way that they normally are the next time around Interest rates will be very low and so we normally rely on central banks to do interest rate cutting to perk up Spending break up growth and they’re not going to be able to do that. So pretty quickly They’re gonna have to turn to less tested methods money printing to buy bonds Quantitative easing was something that was used last time that’s going to be used again But that works in a much more uncertain way and is much more politically contentious than some of the tools that are ordinarily used Within countries the problem is that government is much more polarized across the world You have many more populist parties nationalist parties and it’s going to be very hard to reach the agreement. That’s Necessary to launch big spinning programs and of that nature, then you also have disagreements across countries Which means that it’s much more likely you have Contentious policies tariffs that go up currency wars things of that nature as countries struggle to deal with the next downturn Ideally governments would be taking some steps right now to get ready for the next recession They should be changing their central bank policy targets What we’ve learned is that a low inflation target doesn’t give central bank’s enough room to fight recessions before interest rates fall to zero They should also be getting their budgets ready, which means preparing to include measures that will increase spending automatically when the economy weakens in the future so that they don’t have to have to have fights in Parliament about whether or not to expand spending when the time comes but then most important of all I think governments need to Coordinate their responses with each other that makes it much more likely that we don’t enter a scenario like we did in the 1930s When tariff barriers went up when there were currency wars and competitive devaluations and when ultimately that led to some pretty significant and nasty geopolitical tension

100 thoughts on “How to prepare for the next global recession | The Economist

  1. It will be worse…climate issues such as EQs. Flooding, crop failures worldwide will quantify the depression…it will be great…

  2. Volume digits commanding make believe gadgets in hand fantasy government print note exchange bit coin tax write over nsa monetary weight depth measure

  3. You are an idiot or just ignorant, but since you are spewing garbage and don't have a clue about interest rates related to inflation and the corruption of governments/central banks, I'll go with idiot.

  4. Buy gold and silver. Take your cash out of the bank and have some on hand.
    It will probably be worthless anyway. But just in case. You can always use it to build your fire. Have some emergency supplies. Enough for two months.

  5. Western governments should be scaled back as they are too big and too expensive. Stupid left wing policies and massive welfare systems fuel problems. Big welfare means more immigration and more lazy people. Left wing politics borrowing so much money they are taxing children yet to be born, how sick is that?

  6. Ah, the hopes and dreams of The Economist: that the economy implodes under Donald Trump so that Americans suffer and realize their only savior is…The State.

  7. I do not have to watch the video, the comment section is far more insightful as to what is really the situation for the common man.
    Mainstream Media ? You fail yet again.

  8. McAfee top pick $mtc on

    2 c target $20 by 2020
    Ultimately $5000 talk to a live doc free on your smartphone by video and get paid

  9. Print less money. This will decrease the dollar world wide. This in turn will increase the value of the dollar, and create more of a demand.

  10. Dumb, DUMB DUMB DUMB DUMB.waist of three minutes and seventeen seconds. its like somebody injecting you with heroin while raping you.

  11. Oil price–too high. Personal and public debt levels–too high. And does restricting trade and financial flows with so many countries (Russia, China, Iran, Syria) make any sense?

  12. TRADE WARS are strangling the world economy; the first casualty is the loss of the EURO. This causes WAR to appear between the EU and Russia.
    People ask me "How long is the Great tribulation?" It is a five- month cataclysm, as seen in Revelation 9: 5, 10 which corresponds to the 150 days in Genesis 7: 24; the Great flood of Noah. Matthew 24: 37. At this time, the wicked are destroyed, as seen in Psalms 92: 7 and Psalms 37: 8-10; and this brings the Great tribulation to an end. The survivors are found in God's Kingdom, at the appearance of Christ; at the beginning of the crisis, as seen in Matthew 25: 31, 34. That is why the faithful are protected; and will survive John 3: 16
    Declare "Peace and security!" in Israel; apply maximum pressure to Iran, and watch the 'sudden destruction' Daniel 11: 44, 45 1Thessalonians 5: 2, 3. Jehovah's Day arrives 'like a thief in the night' 1Thessalonians 5: 2. Places in battle and distress at this time are: Gaza, Ashkelon, Ashdod, and Ekron. Zephaniah 2: 1-11. Christ told us to 'get out of Judea' at this time. Mark 13: 16.
    The worldwide financial meltdown Psalms 46: 4-6 Revelation 18: 17 Ezekiel 7: 19 that comes with wars Jeremiah 25: 24-26 and worldwide wrath Revelation 11: 18 also means that the time of man's rule over man is OVER Romans 9: 28. Now, CHRIST RULES Matthew 24: 29, 30 and survivors are found in God's Kingdom, when He arrives. Matthew 25: 31, 34. "Come, you people! Buy wine and buy milk without money and without price!" Isaiah 55: 1. YES INDEED; they STUFF it, and YOU will SEE it happen.

  13. I have a friend that is really into economics and he told me that the next recession will be in 2020. I hope that he’s prediction doesn’t come true.

  14. That’s rich, coming from an Rothschild owned magazine. We need to return to a gold backed currency, get rid of the central banks, eliminate the banksters, , truth and justice, the American way.
    Or as it was,

  15. As soon as civilisations debase their currencys it is only a matter of time before societal collapse.
    We are living in the sixth mass extinction,Biodiversity is destroyed,capitalism is based upon the principle of growth… we have raped the planet,hopefully humans will become extinct.

  16. Did we really need two camera angles on him? When someone is talking to me I don't normally move around to look at the side of their face.

  17. Won't be a recession, will be a total world bank collapse… deutche bank will collapse on October 28th… and all other banks will fallow… get prepared now!!!! 😮

  18. The dow fell by 800 points yesterday.. the next recession is definitely coming back to the developed countries!

  19. The next recession will be much worse then 2008 and their will be flight out of the dollar. Buy Gold and foreign currency! Euro or yen.

  20. its been a decade
    Has it been a decade though? Because sure, its a decade and then some after the start but surely you're not implying that its over?
    The collapse is still going strong. Don't believe me? Look at the graphs.

  21. Wow…if This is the advice of the DIRECTOR of "The Economist" i am realy worried now. 🤣 LOL
    Thank god This dude is not a financial adviser. 🤣 Just another vanila speech.

  22. The causes of cycles of boom-to-bust are systemic. Nothing done by governments in any country since 2008 has addressed the systemic problems. If anything, the actions by central banks have re-ignited the forces driving these cycles by re-stimulating credit-fueled, speculation-driven property (meaning "land") markets.

    The longer-run solution is for governments to dramatically change the ways revenue is raised by taxation, lifting the burden of taxation from income derived by producing goods and providing needed services, from actual capital goods (i.e., buildings, machinery and technologies) and from commerce. All such taxes impose dead weight losses on economic output.

    What should revenue come from: (1) at the local level governments (and school districts) should move to a land-only property tax base, abandoning the assessment of market (i.e., sales) values in favor of collecting of potential annual rental value of whatever land is held; (2) state governments need to begin lowering state sales taxes in favor of a progressive state income tax with the same general characteristics as follows regarding taxation by national governments; (3) national governments should eliminate favorable treatment of gains on the sale of assets, as such gains are not actually "capital" gains. Actual capital goods depreciate over time and never resell for more than the cost of acquisition; and (4) the individual income tax needs to be restructured to be both progressive and simple to comply with. All individual incomes up to some amount (e.g., the national median, or state median for state income taxation purposes). All other deductions and exemptions should be eliminated. Above the exempt amount, increasing rates of taxation would be applied to higher ranges of income, the rates and ranges determined during the budget process in order to raise sufficient revenue to balance the budget. At the highest rates of taxation, almost all income is derived from passive and speculative investment rather than wages or salaries.

    Edward J. Dodson, Director
    School of Cooperative Individualism

  23. Hey guys, this life isn’t temporary there’s a life after death. Believe on the promises of Jesus Christ, who died a death on the cross so He could save you from eternal punishment. He was perfectly sinless. Believe that Jesus died for you and that it’s enough for you to have eternal life. I know life is stressful but please consider the Gospel, so you can be eternally secure in Jesus! Amen and thank you for reading 🙂



  25. Sounds like a Conspiracy Theory to me. You have to ask yourself why they are promoting this. They have never done it in the past, they kept it quiet until they have all their shorts in and they are quiet as a mouse. To funny. Do just the opposite of what these talking heads tell you.

  26. The video's title should instead say "How to imagine the next global recession", and one thing I can imagine about this video is the points are all going in circles and do not present a solution. Even a mathematican knows better than that and I thought economists know what is math

  27. Title is misleading. But why did you not show National Stock Exchange instead of Delhi Stock Exchange or even Bombay Stock Exchange. Your image search is really bad.

  28. Here in the UK, this is how you prepare.

    1. Lock your mortgage into a fixed deal, ideally 5 years.

    2. Lock into a fixed rate energy tariff.

    3. Pay off all credit cards and chop them up. This can be done by going on a serious saving binge. Cut out alcohol and going and eating out.

    4. Buy a cheap diesel car like a VW Polo or Golf. Avoid car finance.

    5. Set a weekly food budget and DO NOT exceed it.

    6. Shop at Lidl Or Aldi as opposed to Tesco or Asda.

    7. Set up side incomes or take up a part time cash in hand hob to offset the rising costs.

    These are some very basic steps to riding out a recession and to live frugally.

    This is how I live and I fucking LOVE IT.

  29. I couldn't agree more , adults are in a opioid coma, but is that stopping them, no baby. So maybe it is the beginning of the end of civilization as we knew it. The young are brain dead, with a few stellar exceptions, and where did these few with manners and intelligence come from ? I thought it was just me, has no one ever read a book ? Can't tell time . Big hand little hand really a mystery ? Oh, how about correct coin change with simple addition by anybody, I don't think so. I gave a girl a quarter to make it easier, she looked for the cash register "GOT Quarter Icon". So you are correct, please place trays in upright position, and tighten those darn seat belts, it is going to be a rough flight.

  30. In 1969 ,Carter Administration, eons ago, went looking for a job out of high school, there weren't many then, I luckily always found one, but it became harder and harder. Now it is practically impossible. I mocked those millions who just gave up as having no fortitude. Silly me. After a thousand, "A THOUSAND" sent applications ( and I do not see computers as an any aid, their more like a rock around your neck.)I too am weary. The horror is if interviewed, they all say " your great we love you and would like to hire you ", then no follow up phone call. None, Zero, Zip, Nada, even a follow up call of a rejection would be refreshing. Oh Please beat me, hurt me, disrespect me, treat me with a zero professional courtesy. Those who gave up are geniuses. Glad I went to college forever, what did I learn ?

  31. This is all bullshit… The only reason they are saying the U.S. is heading back into a recession is because they believe Recession comes in cycles… Like seasons of the planet. As long as the DEM's don't take office in 2020 the U.S. will be fine. Everyone around the world is investing in the U.S. and want to be part of the bull market. 2008 happened because fools were selling crap back and forth to each other until someone said: why am i buying this crap??? more and more businesses are leaving other countries and are coming home…

  32. The crash of 2008 was caused by brokers giving ninja loans. This problem doesn't exist today. We now have interest only loans come home to roost. So every problem that caused a crash was created by the banking sector. Next time the banks won't get bailed out.. lookout 2025

  33. I’m praying for a financial collapse. America needs an awakening from their greed. Housing is outrageously greedy and so are apartments. Taxes and fees everywhere. I pray the complete system crashes. America needs it. Badly!

  34. I royaly got [email protected]#$# by the 2008 recession…….still here tho, doing my best to get back on top.

    Work wise I was a mid level manager with transferable skills across the board (minus the medical field). Today, I am doing entry-level security work, trying to get out from the front line. I choose security as I believe it is a near recession proof industry. You will always have a paycheck and plenty of OT hours.

    Another way to prepare, if you can work it out….live off the grid. A small cabin out in the middle no where….. fish, plant based food, nuts, berries and prayer.

  35. I’m going to commit suicide!!!! Fuck this fucking miserable planet!! More religion/cults, racism, and money won’t fix corruption, stupid fucking purposeless humans!!! Rent is imaginary permission to be alive! Martian microorganisms and non human species don’t need permission to exist! STOP SUCKING CORPORATION DICK AND GET LOUD ABOUT TELLING THE FEDS WHO THE FUCK IS THE BOSS! THIS NEGLIGENT NIHILISM IS GETTING OLD.

  36. The causes of cycles of boom to bust are systemic. The market is burdened by contradictory public policies, policies that reward speculation over production and which have provided huge subsidies to some at the expense of others. Many heterodox economists write critically of the system of money and credit creation. There is a growing call for creation of public banks and an end to the money monopoly. There is a drastic need for real tax reform that captures rents rather than taxes earned income. The organization Prosper Australia just held the 128th Annual Henry George Commemorative Dinner on the 4th of September. The keynote speaker was economics professor Frank Stilwell. His address ("Land, Labour & Capital) covered the evolving character of economic thought and the contributions made by Henry George (and others), as political economists, observing that when it comes to how wealth is ultimately distributed this is a political matter. Professor Stilwell's address deserves a wide audience. If you agree, share it with others.

    Edward J. Dodson

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