How immigrants and their children affect the US economy | Robert Kaplan

How immigrants and their children affect the US economy | Robert Kaplan


GDP is comprised of growth in the workforce
and then growth in productivity. So if you have slowing workforce growth that
tells you that’s going to create a real headwind for GDP growth. It means that if you’re going to have more
than sluggish GDP growth, you’re going to need more growth from productivity. Immigrants and their children, based on our
work at the Dallas Fed, have made up more than half of the workforce growth in the United
States in the last 20 years. Immigrants and their children. And it’s our judgment that in the next 20
years that percentage will be even higher, because the existing workforce is aging and
will age out of the workforce. So while it’s very controversial and a sensitive
subject, obviously, we’re going to need to come to grips in this country at some point
with immigration reform that helps us find a way to grow immigration. And I believe that is going to be an essential
element also of growing the workforce in the years ahead. The ten year treasury is lower, interest rates
generally are lower than we’ve historically become accustomed. There’s a number of reasons for that but
one of them is I think the markets are expecting relatively sluggish GDP growth in the years
ahead and one of the primary reasons for that is slowing again workforce growth. So Japan is a great example of an economy
that is suffering from aging demographics to a greater extent even than the United States. And as a result of that their GDP growth has
steadily declined, and the problem is culturally and structurally there’s not a lot they
are able to do—meaning they’ve worked on getting women back into the workforce or
getting them to participate to a greater degree in the workforce, but that’s basically run
its course. And they are not culturally receptive to immigration. Back to the United States. We’ve also had a trend in the U.S. where
women increasingly joined the workforce, and that helped workforce growth. But that trend has also plateaued. And the reality is unless we take some action
we’re going to have very sluggish workforce growth in the years ahead. So what are some actions that could be taken
to address it? Number one: we call it skills training, workforce
development, middle skills training. That means there’s a skills gap in the United
States. There are more skilled job openings than there
are supply of skilled workers. Most surveys we do and that we read show that
many companies are finding they cannot fill skilled jobs. So if you could get discouraged workers trained
in what’s likely to be a local partnership between a junior college, a high school, and
local businesses, and you could get them trained and back into the workforce, that grows the
workforce. And to the extent you retrain people who are
already in the workforce, that grows productivity. The second thing that historically this country
has done to grow the workforce has been immigration. Obviously fertility helps but it helps 20-25
years from now with a lag. And so if we don’t take some action we’re
going to have slowing workforce growth in the next 20 years and it’s going to create
a headwind for GDP growth.

100 thoughts on “How immigrants and their children affect the US economy | Robert Kaplan

  1. If a illegal immigrant can't get social services or any government perks but if they work and use a illegal SSN and they get their social and medical out of his check were that money ends at. Because as far as I know that's how many many USA companies work or operate.

  2. How sustainable is this model? Granting that human population will not grow indefinitely and will eventually, and rather soon reach its peak- what do you do then? Encourage immigration until everyone is an American? Is there a limit, physical or otherwise?

  3. Can someone help me to comprehend how growth of immigrant population is better for our economy when we're not creating enough jobs to keep up with the expanding population & degree inflation we suffer from, not to mention AI/robot technology displacing the work force?

  4. No one is against legal immigration. We are the most generous nation when it comes to immigration. More than any other.
    There is a big difference between legal and illegal immigration. Stop conflating the two. Every country has a right and a duty to defend its borders.
    We are a nation of laws and do not get to choose which laws apply and which do not.

  5. Need a larger population? Fix the divorce laws so more people marry. Stop attacking teen mothers. Stop spreading feminism. Raise income as a percentage of wealth created by work to levels seen during the baby boom.

  6. Supply and demand are good for some things and not so good for others. Big business wants a huge supply of people who are willing to work for less to compete against a limited supply of people who are not willing to work for less. If an unlimited supply of uneducated people is absolutely great for the economy why are the places they are coming from superpowers? It should be they can't find people to work for the little they want to pay while the people on top make millions off of other people's work

  7. It's income per capita that matters to the citizens of their countries not the overall GDP, that only matters to the wealthy employers who benefit from cheap labour, wage compression and property inflation with immigration. I live in England and open door immigration has destroyed our once great country, as it has on most of the Continent of Europe.

  8. I would half agree. With innovation, better products(not mimicking competition) and fueling imagination is also a driver in the economy. Since Steve Jobs died has Apple debuted much more than a new generation on current series? Pricing out the customer once again, I hope Im wrong. The internet prides itself on data collecting, while the details of domain cookies are rarely clarified with sincere intent toward the user of acknowledgement. The economy gets hooked on degrees of profit, like corn. Who is using E85? Who knew everything contained corn? Wasnt I supposed to be sold ketchup? You sold me corn syrup. Soy promotes estrogen in males, or last I'd heard, and that is excluding the glyphosate that used to come caked, or sprayed onto the pickers on the field while they work.
    Natural gas, the next big thing since "clean coal". Relentless leaking from wells, easy money though, injections fluids insmection pluids right? Who cares "if it aint broke"🤡

  9. Don't you love it when people bring up japan as an example…
    Oh well… and the "open borders" people actually think they will bounce back in elections

  10. Immigrants and their children? Who lives in the states that isn't an immigrant? Native americans are a very small percentage…

  11. Meanwhile artificial intelligence is going to remove most low-skill jobs. This calculation seems a little outdated to me.

  12. Companies don't want to invest. It's like a pro baseball team that doesn't have a minor league team expecting a Derek Jeeter to walk in the door. If a company doesn't invest in workers, it's just an opportunist and user.

  13. False. If you have the brains (something we're not importing), you get ideas that drive the economies. This is the reason the productivity (the GDP) of economies is highly correlated with mean intelligence (the higher the mean, the more brilliant people you have at that end of the distribution). We're currently importing people in the lower I.Q. bands because "diversity is our strength".

    The reason you need to grow the workforce is because of socialism and low birth-rate (which are related). But when you have a banker present his reasons, be aware that he might have ulterior motives.

    This guy hasn't watched presentations (like those of Peterson) that show people with an I.Q. less than 83 can't be positively productive (and by law can't even join the military).

  14. This guy is complete bullshit. Under Trump GDP went to 4%, higher than anyone ever expected…and he's anti illegal immigrant. FYI the "immigrants" that the left always talks about has little to no work skills. Just look at the "immigrants" in Europe right now: around 70% don't have any jobs at all. This video is pure globalist propaganda.

  15. Hmm, we need more people in the workforce. For how long? For two generations and then everything is automated? Also, the problem of not enough educated people in the workforce seems to be somewhat of a loop. The economy has been going down hill, so young adults can’t afford to have children. How do we get money to afford children? Get a job. Unfortunately, the Mexican immigrant already has that job. Guess I can’t afford a child. Stop letting the immigrants in and deporting the illegals will open job positions for many people, and could potentially end the cycle. One last thing. If a country is historically European and unified by Western culture, why is it not our right to keep the country the way it is, the same way that helped it grow to be a superpower in much less time than other countries. Why do we have to be a sanctuary for the failed countries' people? We will ruin the way America is and the way it works well by letting in uneducated immigrants to take our jobs. I will say it clearly: IMMIGRATION IS BAD FOR AMERICA

  16. I would be more accepting of open access borders if we got rid of the welfare state. This includes corporate welfare. However, in the case of immigration the incentive to come to the USA needs to be a better opportunity to be a productive member of society; not better handouts from the government.

  17. Cute attempt there

    1. You ignored hyper advanced automation (which will make 3/4 of the planet irrelevant, but that’s for another conversation)

    2. Immigrants are prone to unskilled labor. This field be wiped out by automation.

    3. You can’t just keep importing people unless your goal is to make America a place no one wants to immigrate to.

    Nice try but come back when you have a real argument and not just skewed alt left propaganda/Social Marxism.
    Good day.

  18. Ignoring or downplaying the effects of automation makes for a very poor argument. This type of short-sighted thinking will hurt both the local economy and the global economy.

  19. What this piece misses is that GDP growth is not the most important parameter to a country. Per capita GDP is more important, and where the benefits of GDP growth go is more important. If GDP growth rewards primarily corporations and elites, how is this good for all people in the country? The most important parameter is how immigration improves the standard of living of the general population. If it result in an elite class and a serf class, it doesn't pass muster.

  20. People are less willing to take risks. Adapt for that and offer guarantees.
    A person will get off government assistance if they have a guarantee of a better life in exchange for labor.
    A person will go to school for a trade skill if they have a guarantee of a job when they graduate.

  21. We are automating ourselves out of work at huge rates right now. Basing worker rates historically would be great if the trend was expected to continue, but it isn't.

  22. And how does mass illegal immigration of non-integrating illegal laborers who no not pay all their taxes affect the economy? Oh right. They drive down wages & cost billions more than they generate. Get the fuck out. Come legally or don't come.

  23. Growing the population might seem interesting if the country itself was a person, but we are all individuals. If the country is doing good but the average person is fucked then that’s not sustainable.

  24. It makes zero sense to conflate all kinds of immigrant into a single category. Asylum seekers and unskilled economic migrants do not have the same effect on an economy as the highly skilled and highly educated migrants that countries all over the world compete to attract due to labour shortages in their fields and the fact that their skills increase a country's competitiveness in the global marketplace.

  25. Isn't there a difference between states of an economy? When is it right to have a growing economy, and when is it right to have a stable economy? What I am seeing, is that we should stabilize it right now, see where automation and AI go in the next 10 years and then talk about a solution that's not merely just "Bring in more people!"

  26. If un skilled immigrants improve economy then all countries would fight to take rohingya refugees .that didn't happen they we're viewed as burden rather than boost for economy.bangldesh took almost all the rohingya refugees.so according to this person Bangladesh gdp should improve drastically because of about 1million unskilled labour .but that hasn't yet happened.same gdp growth rate as last year, so I really doubt this videos theory.
    On the other hand I think he was talking about highly skilled labour selected through merit process legal immigrants from countries with proper education system like india or other .basically all the immigrant CEO like sundhar of Google,sathyam of Microsoft,Elon musk are all educated immigrants who are improving the economy.not the unskilled labour.15 percent of us is unemployed why do you need more unskilled labour ..I think it will only lead to more unemployment for natives un skilled people..

  27. I see and hear many holes in your argument. The biggest is GDP is rising, people don't all have kids at the same time and our population continues to grow with or with out immigration. Do some rudimentary research on birth rate you will see we had spikes, lulls and humps and the boomer generation are aging but large numbers of young people have joined the workforce as well. Legal immigration, no problem. However, if you are trying to skirt some line in support of illegal immigration is helping our country, your credibility as a professor and as the CEO of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas has fallen to zero, you have proven you know very little and use it to virtue signal.

  28. More people on the planet isn't the sustainable solution and choice of variable (y=AKL) for continued economic growth. We are biting the hand that feeds us (Earth).

    Also, to note: Egypt has about half the GDP of Sweden, but 10 times the population.

  29. I'll simplify this. More bodies for cheaper mostly service jobs with soecific skills and more bodies needed for high end scientific highly educated jobs. Better for the economy but, not better for humans as a whole. A stronger country and growing economy breeds more pollution, use of resource and brings eventually about more suffering. Humans are evolved to think only short term, tribal for survival/locally. We do bot thing globally and certainly not Universally. It helps economies grow with an influx of immigrants but, you can't have your cake and eat it too. It becomes humans are supply chains and citizens want immigrants to work hard at low income service jobs and not make a peep, not vote and not get healthcare. You shouldn't have it both ways. Until products rise in price, humans are of one opinion. Everyone who is affected by any offshoot then changes their minds. It's called being human. Yes, of course this is a convincing video on the need for more immigrants. Could you imagine if Big Think put out an anti-video? I'm of zero opinion. Fake borders drawn on a rock with selfish humans is my only stance.

  30. This is neoliberal cancer.

    GDP growth isn't the right measure, you gotta look at GDP per capita.

    And decreased workforce growth is a good thing except for the 0.01%.

  31. In case you Americans are not aware, Canada raised the age from 65 to 67 to start your pension because they don't have enough money in the old age pension to support retired people, so you need to work longer before you qualify .and Canada does not have a shrinking population, just not growing fast enough: https://www.thoughtco.com/canadian-old-age-security-pension-changes-510733

  32. If he’s talking about legal immigrants cool, if he’s talking about ILLEGAL immigrants then no. Here why quickly:

    Cancer raises the gdp, serial killer raise the gdp, divorce raise the gdp. Why?

    Cancer means you need more doctors, killers means you need more cops, divorce means you need two House two cars etc.

    Something increasing the gdp doesn’t necessarily mean it’s a good thing

  33. He didn't address the drawbacks of immigration. Immigrants cost us plenty in social spending and crime. China's GDP has been on fire for years…and they don't do the immigration stuff.

  34. Unbelievable psy-ops babble from a central-planner, central-banker who ignores the technological revolution that is taking place, while perpetuating a fiat-currency system designed to transfer wealth through fractional reserve banking, debt-based liquidity.

  35. Hmmm? So Obama was far more relaxed on immigration laws than Trump and Obama was the first US president in history not to achieve 3% GDP growth over two terms! Trump on the other hand achieved 3% GDP almost immediately with ideal immigration law enforcement. Actions and hard data speak louder than propaganda and words.

  36. Does he know that we are living in the 21first century? Please watch humans need not apply or useless jobs.

  37. ..dream on.. dumb a$$..
    meanwhile my ..1st MISTAKE
    ..GENESIS 3.1 has united.
    ..REVELATION 17 with my 2nd one ..
    ..GENESIS 2.22 & I have directed & cho$en
    ..REVELATION 17.17 THEM…
    ..JUDE 6.16 thejewu$AFEdre$erve BANKER$ cabal to FIX IT
    GENESIS 6.7.. as planned..
    yes.. & say hi
    TaihuLight

  38. Which is why citizens who's money is stolen for illegal aliens to happily knowingly fraudulently live in America needs to go asap.There will be no future for American children who's school learning is waterd down to teach illegals.

  39. We can either pay a few billion for a wall or several trillion per year caring for them and their children. The demographics will change each year the illegals are here to mean their vote will change our constitution per vote. Blame the dems. America was a dream for the Christ-Light. Fact, at least 80% to 90% of the senate is corrupt and care little about illegals. It's all a dog and pony show for them. It's America's Christ-Light against the Illuminati who now control it. Donald Trump was asked by our military to help eliminate all Illuminati controlled politicians and judges, bankers, etc out of our country. The illegals will be used as a diversion; mexicans, muslims, etc. Patriots will not allow our country to fall. Bless America. The anagram of the word AMERICA is I AM RACE.

  40. Sad to realize that minds like this control the economy. This guy is just another ponzi scheme huckster. Perpetual growth as a pre-requisite for a functioning economy is unsustainable. Humanity is incapable of addressing the problem of over population. We need an economic model and expectations that are sustainable.

  41. We should have a better system, like a points system. We should only allow in a limited amount of people each year that will benefit our country (don't let people in who are low skilled and have to rely on public assistance.) And by no means should anyone who has illegally entered be allowed to stay. File & get to the back of the line.

  42. Going to call BS on finding "skilled labor". Experience shows that it's mainly a scheme to get low-cost visa applicants as employees vs. hiring Americans at fair wages.

  43. Too bad there is no endless supply of shitty job they can do, at least not here in EU. Even shitty jobs require a degree here, and most immigrants do not get a job or any kind of education for the first few generation…Accepting immigrants and hoping them to bring your economy up, is a dream of 100 years or more. And they here in EU do this currently, no matter how bad things get meanwhile. And things have gotten really really bad in certain countries. Also so that no one thinks this is stupid person rambling, I'm talking about illegals. No one hates legal immigrants, those are more than welcome and very needed(these people almost always have degrees and motivations to fit in society <<< these we love <3)

  44. We should address the real unemployment rate of one fifth of the working age population in the US to fix the GDP rather than focusing only on immigration.

  45. First, GDP is not a good measure of the prosperity of the people of a nation. While GDP has grown, median income has not. While GDP growth is necessary for prosperity, it is not sufficient.

    Second, automation is increasing exponentially. Retraining is a short-term solution. What are we going to do when the jobs people have been retrained for become automated? Retrain them again? People don't want to have to spend their lives being displaced over and over again, they want to be able to do what is meaningful to them.

    The answer is to increase self-employment. We need to create an environment and institutions revolving around entrepreneurship. Ideally, we would create a society where people can just pursue their hobbies, even if they don't generate enough income for them to support themselves. My suggestion would be to implement a value added tax and universal basic income, which together would renormalize the GDP-to-median income ratio.

  46. More immigrants = more people. More people = more natural resources needed. Mass immigration is good for the logging industry, mining, etc. it’s very bad for the environment but who cares right?

  47. No, we don't need to import labor. If you need more labor, you can make it worthwhile to the people here. If there aren't enough people here, maybe we help people with kids, instead of telling responsible people that they can't afford to have kids and then importing massive families from outside the country. Support families instead of mass immigration!

  48. THE IMAGRINT THAT CAME WHEN MY FATHER CAME. WE'RE PEOPLE WHO HAD A HIGH LEVEL OF INTELLIGENCE TOOK BUT GAVE BACK. NOW THE MEXICANS AND MUSLIMS AND IMAGRINT ARE NOT TO BRITE OR DON'T WANT TO WORK JUST TAKING ADVANTAGE OF AMERICA SISTOM. NANCY PELOSI AND CHUCK AND OBAMA AND THE CLINTONS ARE TAKING ADVANTAGE OF AMERICA SISTOM AND SCREWING UP OUR CHILDREN'S FUTURE IS IN TROUBLE.

  49. A part of usa workforce are immigrants, if all were to leave us economy would have a slight impact, to much restrictions can lead to a devastating situation, America buys 80% of chinas rare earth material, if usa has mountain pass reserve it be logical for usa to produce instead of buying from China, but since there isn't a workforce or people that actually know how to mine it and refine it, usa can't exploit it, the costs of finding ways to do it and time wouldnt be an asset for the economy in the begging

  50. If the economy doesn't work without immigration than reform the economy don't do complete culture and racial replacement. Use your brain you retard, small think more is more like it

  51. The fact remains that every single migrant lowers wages a bit and raises housing prices a bit, with this level of migration, a family with two incomes can barely pay the rent. Bottom line, migration hurts the American people… a lot!!

  52. Immigration in the USA since the betrayal of the 1965 immigration Act has brought the vast majority of immigrants into our Country from incompatible foreigners, cultures and lower IQ populations. Gee, I wonder why our Country is turning into a 3rd world sh#thole more resembling the Countries from which our immigrants come from?

  53. I agree all the bigger successful cities have great economies within those cities look at all the hick towns they dont want to work hard so companies shut down thats what happened to detroit

  54. This is actually what is going on – Doug Stanhope on nationalism and immigration
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QsPDT5qHtZ4&t=139s

  55. Education for immigrants sounds like a better decision other than taking their kids and putting them all in jail basically, in stead of enforcing them not to be here we should offer help and make this dam world a better place fuck the system n fuck the no tolerance policy

  56. Typical liberal propaganda. You ranted about skills training and employing skilled immigrants, but the illegals you are protecting and those you wanted to let in (more) are mostly unskilled and untrained asylum seekers. I am so pissed off with liberals still not getting the difference between legal immigrants who were sponsored into the country because of their skill, talent, or educaiton that would contribute to the country and those that just sneaked across the border and now pose themselves as "victims". Please this really offends me as an immigrant who worked my ass off before becoming a citizen, counting 17 years to get to where I am now, switching visa categories and worked and paid taxes. Dumb liberals just don't get it.

  57. I’m completely against legal immigration legal immigration is dumb it’s dumb period I got robbed at work cuz broke people was tryna kill me they was probably jealous immigrants

  58. Sure it’s good for an employer they just hire people they don’t have to sit on the front lines of anything and get harassed by broke people

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