$94 ๐Ÿ’•2020 ๊ฒฝ์ œ์ „๋ง  ๊ธฐํš์žฌ์ •๋ถ€ (2019.12.26) Economic Outlook for 2020 (eng sub)

$94 ๐Ÿ’•2020 ๊ฒฝ์ œ์ „๋ง ๊ธฐํš์žฌ์ •๋ถ€ (2019.12.26) Economic Outlook for 2020 (eng sub)


Hello. I`m bae jaehan Ministry of Strategy and Finance presented economic outlook for 2020 Let’s take a look at the whole Economic Outlook for 2020 Ministry of Strategy and Finance Recent Economic Trends and 2019 Outlook 2020 External Condition Check 2020 Economic Outlook Recent Economic Trends and 2019 Outlook Expected to grow 2.0% in 2008 on sluggish investment exports Real growth rate(Economic growth) Downside risks are projected to grow 2.0% more than expected Consumption continues to rise slowly External conditions, such as slowing global economic growth, have deteriorated significantly, leading to sluggish investment and exports. The slowdown in private vitality constrains growth, Fiscal plays an active role in responding to downside risks GDP growth rate Q1 2019 -0.4% Q2 2019 1.0% Q3 2019 0.4% 1 in the fourth quarter to achieve the 2.0% government estimate Source Bank of Korea Contribution to growth of the private government Q1 2017 ~ Q3 2019 The red box is a private contribution. Private contribution was very high in growth contribution, but it is decreasing as time goes by. Meaning that the private economic sector is very bad GDP deflator Annual drop of 0.8% is expected due to deterioration in terms of trade due to falling price of main exports Ordinary Growth Rate 1.0% growth expected in 3rd quarter due to deflator decline, 1.2% annual growth Real Growth Rate + GDP Deflator=Current Growth Rate Let’s see the second page Private consumption growth to slow 1.9% annually Please take a look If you want to see the screen in detail please stop or capture 7.7% annual decline due to reduced investment in machinery Although machinery investment has declined significantly, mainly in semiconductor equipment, some investments have been made due to an increase in investment in transportation equipment such as aircraft Companies are not investing Let’s go to the third page Building construction will be completed in 15 ~ 17 years due to the sale and construction of large-scale apartments. New start-ups decrease, leading to a modest adjustment The supply is decreasing. Why Seoul’s House Prices Soar Civil construction recently recovered due to an increase in SOC budget Expected to decrease 4.0% overall 2.7% increase due to R & D investment I’ll see you on the next page Continued recovery of employment, 280,000 increase in 19 years One-time job growth Population by age group, increase in employment In fact, the number of people aged 60 and over has increased, but the number of young people has decreased. There is a big increase in the number of people over 50 I need insight to be cool. Consumer prices are expected to rise 0.4% Metropolitan-Differentiation between Provinces Polarization is at a serious level Annual customs clearance exports 10.6% decline, imports 6.4% decline The economy is shrinking Current account is expected to surpass $ 58 billion annually The commodity balance is expected to decrease in the black compared to 2008 due to sluggish exports due to a sharp drop in the sugar price of semiconductors. The service balance narrowed due to an increase in foreign tourists and a decrease in imports. Review of external conditions in 2020 Please read it Trade and Prices to Slightly Expand Proliferation of protectionism The United States is changing from free trade to protectionism. The global trend is China’s economic slowdown You have to prepare well in Korea International commodity prices Expect $ 59 in Dubai International grain prices rise slightly, Nonferrous Metal Prices Fall International financial market Volatility will depend on the direction of US-China trade negotiations Possibility to increase volatility according to risk factors 2020 Economic Outlook Real GDP is projected to grow 2.4% per year The Ministry of Strategy and Finance says Korea’s economic growth rate will be 2.4% next year. Current GDP is projected to grow 3.4% annually Current GDP includes inflation Inflation is expected to rise 1.0% next year On what basis do you expect 2.4% annual growth in 2020, better than 2019? Global economy, semiconductor industry will recover It is expected to improve on the back of policy effects such as expansion of macroeconomic policy, investment and domestic demand. Some argue that the government plan is a novel Investment-driven domestic growth tax growth and export improvement prospects With consumption slowly improving Facility investment is expected to recover from the semiconductor industry, rebound from base effect, and contribute to growth Exports are expected to expand and increase Global Semiconductor Sales Growth Rate 21.6% in 2017 13.7% in 2018 -12.8% in 2019 5.9% in 2020??? Will rise more than 18% year-on-year ??? I don’t know what the reason for this is source on WSTS data The Ministry of Strategy and Finance predicts that exports will be good next year and economic growth will be 2.4%. Current GDP is expected to grow 3.4% annually Current growth is forecast at 3.4% per year, up from 19 years as real growth improves and deflator rises. Deflator growth rate is expected to be 1.0% Private consumption is expected to increase 2.1% annually It’s just a good story. Actually it’s different. Please read carefully Real purchasing power is expected to increase as transfer income increases due to expansion of welfare budget Use of welfare budgets has the least impact on society or on the economy A modest 2.1% increase over 19 is expected due to moderate improvements in real purchasing power and recovery in consumer sentiment. The civilian doesn’t think like this In fact, corporate bankruptcy has increased Self-employed are being expelled Facility investment is expected to grow 5.2% annually All of these investments include Samsung and Semiconductor Semiconductor demand is recovering Samsung will invest 13.1 trillion won to convert to OLED by 25 years There are many words Samsung and Semiconductor in the government’s data. Semiconductor is the pillar of our country Samsung and the semiconductor market will be fine next year ?? Does this make sense? Construction investment forecast to decline 2.4% annually Construction is still not good Intellectual Property Prices are expected to grow 4.0% per year I will invest a lot in R & D. R & D growth is closely related to future food 250,000 employees are expected to grow I hope the youth jobs will be created instead of raising the one-time jobs by raising the budget. Consumer prices are projected to rise 1.0% per year by 2020 Higher inflation leads to higher economic growth Higher inflation leads to higher economic growth Exports are expected to grow at 3.0% per year and imports are expected to grow at 2.5% per year. Current account surplus of $ 59.5 billion annually I hope you can compare it by this time next year after 2020. Summary of Economic Outlook for 2020 Please stop the screen and see what’s going on in 2020 compared to 2019. The Ministry of Strategy and Finance summarized the economic outlook for 2020. I don’t know if it helped Please read and prepare The government expected the economic growth rate to be 2.4% in 2020, but it would be better if the growth rate is higher than that and people live well. People expect 2020 to be harder

8 thoughts on “$94 ๐Ÿ’•2020 ๊ฒฝ์ œ์ „๋ง ๊ธฐํš์žฌ์ •๋ถ€ (2019.12.26) Economic Outlook for 2020 (eng sub)

  1. ํ•ญ์ƒ ์ข‹์€ ์˜์ƒ ๊ฐ์‚ฌ๋“œ๋ฆฝ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค๐Ÿฅฐ๐Ÿฅฐ

  2. ๋ฌธ ์ •๋ถ€ํ•˜๋Š” ๋ชจ๋“ ๊ฒƒ์ด ์‹ ๋ขฐ๊ฐ€ ์•ˆ๋“ค์–ด์š”
    ์ŠคํŠธ๋ ˆ์Šค ๋ฐ›์•„์„œ ๊ด‘ํ™”๋ฌธ ๊ฐ‘๋‹ˆ๋‹ค

  3. ๋ˆˆ๊ฐ๊ณ  ์•„์›…ํ•˜๋Š” ์ •๋ถ€์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค
    ๋ฐ˜๋Œ€๋กœ ์ƒ๊ฐํ•˜๋ฉด ๋งž๋Š” 2020๋…„์ด ๋ ๊ฑฐ ๊ฐ™์•„์š”. ๊ฐ์ž๋„์ƒ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
    ๋ฌด์–ผํ•ด์•ผ ํ• ๊นŒ์š”?
    ์„ธ๊ณ„ ๋Œ€๊ณตํ™ฉ์ด๋‚˜ ์•ˆ์˜ค๋ฉด ๋‹คํ–‰์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.

  4. ์œ ์ตํ•œ ์ •๋ณด ๊ฐ์‚ฌํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
    ๊ฐ์ž๋„์ƒ์ด ๊ธธ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.

  5. ๐ŸŒฟโ™ฅ๏ธ์•„๋žซ๋ฐฐํž˜์ฃผ๊ณ  ๋‹จ๋‹จํžˆ ์ค€๋น„ํ•ด์•ผ ๊ฒ ๋‹ค๋Š” ๋ง์”€์ด ๊ท€์— ์™๋“ค์–ด ์˜ต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค! ์œ ์ตํ•œ์ •๋ณด ํ•ญ์ƒ ๊ฐ์‚ฌํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค!๐ŸŒฟโ™ฅ๏ธ

  6. ์กฐ๊ตญ ๊ณผ ์ •๊ฒฝ์‹ฌ .์œ ์žฌ์ˆ˜ ๋น„๋ฆฌ .๊ฒฝ์ œ ํญ๋ง .ํˆฌํ‘œ ์ž˜ํ•ด์•ผ ํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.๋งˆ์ง€๋ง‰ ๊ธฐํšŒ ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค

  7. ์†๋ฐ”๋‹ฅ์œผ๋กœ ํ•˜๋Š˜์„ ๊ฐ€๋ ค๋ผ~ ์‚ผ์„ฑ์„ ์ฃฝ์ด๊ณ  ์žˆ์œผ๋ฉด์„œ ์‚ผ์„ฑ๋•Œ๋ฌธ์— ๊ฒฝ์ œ๊ฐ€ ์„ฑ์žฅํ•œ๋‹ค๊ณ ? ๋ฌด์Šจ ์ฝ”๋ฉ”๋”” ํ•˜๋ƒ? ๊ธฐ๊ฐ€์ฐจ์„œ ์›ƒ์Œ๋„ ์•ˆ๋‚˜์˜จ๋‹ค. ํƒˆ์›์ „ํ•œ๋‹ค๊ณ  ์›์ž๋ ฅ๋ฐœ์ „ ๋‹ค์ฃฝ์ด๊ณ  ์ด์   ์ฒ ๊ฐ•์‚ฐ์—… ์ฃฝ์ด๊ธฐ์— ๋ฐ˜๋„์ฒด๊นŒ์ง€~ ์ค‘๊ตญ์— ์ถฉ์„ฑํ•˜๋‹ˆ ์ข‹์œผ๋ƒ? ์ •๋ง ๋‚ด๋…„์— ์„ ๊ฑฐ ์ž˜ ํ•ฉ์‹œ๋‹ค. ์ฃฝ์„๋•Œ๊นŒ์ง€ ์ขŒํŒŒ๋Š” ๊ฑฐ๋ฆ…์‹œ๋‹ค.

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